ATL⇄TEX

ATLATL Alex Anthopoulos net +$0.0M net +0.2

received −$1.6M−$1.6M ± $14M expected surplus · +$0.0M realized received 0.2 ± 2 expected · 0.2 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved ATL's 2023 odds 98% → 98% (+0.1 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Kolby AllardP·25y·L/L

−$1.9M−$1.9M± $14M exp surplusrealized +$0.0M 0.2± 2 exp WARrealized 0.2

Prior

#14 overall draft pick → 0.47/yr

Evidence

recent form -0.4/yr over 1.2 season

Talent

0.05/yr blended

Horizon

4.0 control yrs

why ▾hide ▴

TEXTEX Jon Daniels net +$0.0M net -0.2

received +$10.4M+$8.0M ± $11M expected surplus · +$0.0M realized received 1.3 ± 1 expected · 0.0 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved TEX's 2023 odds 85% → 85% (-0.5 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Jake OdorizziP·33y·R/R

+$10.6M+$8.1M± $11M exp surplusrealized +$0.0M 1.3± 1 exp WARrealized 0.0

Prior

league baseline (track record outweighs draft pedigree) → 0.25/yr

Evidence

recent form 1.9/yr over 2.0 seasons

Talent

1.29/yr blended

Horizon

1.0 control yr

why ▾hide ▴

Each player is valued on what he was expected to produce at the time of the trade, versus what he actually produced for his new team.

Expected WAR blends a player's pedigree (composite top-100 rank / draft slot, or a baseline) with his recent track record, projected over the years of team control acquired. The ± figure is a historically calibrated predictive standard deviation, measuring how widely comparable forecasts have missed around their expected value. Surplus values that production at the FA market price of a win (~$8M/WAR) minus salary — so cost-controlled players carry large surplus and expensive ones little, even at the same WAR. Who won is descriptive, not a skill claim: ~99% of a trade's outcome is unforeseeable at the time.