TBR⇄COL⇄TOR

TBRTBR Chuck Lamar net +$23.2M net +2.0

received +$21.6M+$21.6M ± $33M expected surplus · +$53.6M realized received 3.1 ± 4 expected · 5.0 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved TBR's 2004 odds 2% → 2% (-0.2 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Mark HendricksonP·30y·L/L

+$21.4M+$21.4M± $33M exp surplusrealized +$53.6M 3.1± 4 exp WARrealized 5.0

Prior

#369 overall draft pick — at the league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

recent form 1.7/yr over 1.3 season

Talent

0.99/yr blended

Horizon

4.0 control yrs × 0.77 age decline

why ▾hide ▴

COLCOL Daniel O'Dowd net +$33.6M net +1.2

received +$20.8M+$20.8M ± $32M expected surplus · +$30.4M realized received 3.3 ± 4 expected · 3.0 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved COL's 2004 odds 1% → 1% (+0.4 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Joe KennedyP·25y·R/L

+$20.4M+$20.4M± $31M exp surplusrealized +$30.4M 3.1± 4 exp WARrealized 3.0

Prior

#252 overall draft pick — at the league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

recent form 1.5/yr over 1.9 season

Talent

1.02/yr blended

Horizon

3.0 control yrs

why ▾hide ▴

Sandy Nin

+$0.3M+$0.3M± $6M exp surplusrealized +$0.0M 0.2± 1 exp WARrealized 0.0

Unidentified minor-league throw-in — valued at the ~0.2 WAR base rate (most produce nothing)

why ▾hide ▴

TORTOR JP Ricciardi net −$56.8M net -3.2

received −$5.6M−$5.6M ± $8M expected surplus · −$3.2M realized received 0.4 ± 1 expected · 1.8 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved TOR's 2004 odds 3% → 2% (-1 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Justin SpeierP·30y·R/R

−$5.8M−$5.8M± $8M exp surplusrealized −$3.2M 0.4± 1 exp WARrealized 1.8

Prior

league baseline (track record outweighs draft pedigree) → 0.21/yr

Evidence

recent form 0.3/yr over 2.5 seasons

Talent

0.29/yr blended

Horizon

1.5 control yr × 0.84 age decline

why ▾hide ▴

Each player is valued on what he was expected to produce at the time of the trade, versus what he actually produced for his new team.

Expected WAR blends a player's pedigree (composite top-100 rank / draft slot, or a baseline) with his recent track record, projected over the years of team control acquired. The ± figure is a historically calibrated predictive standard deviation, measuring how widely comparable forecasts have missed around their expected value. Surplus values that production at the FA market price of a win (~$8M/WAR) minus salary — so cost-controlled players carry large surplus and expensive ones little, even at the same WAR. Who won is descriptive, not a skill claim: ~99% of a trade's outcome is unforeseeable at the time.