BAL⇄BOS

BALBAL Pat Gillick net +$0.8M net +0.0

received +$0.8M+$0.8M ± $21M expected surplus · +$0.0M realized received 1.0 ± 3 expected · 0.0 realized WAR

receives — most valuable first

Bo Dodson1B·27y·L/L

+$0.7M+$0.7M± $21M exp surplusrealized +$0.0M 1.0± 3 exp WARrealized 0.0

Prior

#63 overall draft pick — at the league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

no MLB track record — leans on pedigree

Talent

0.21/yr blended

Horizon

6.0 control yrs × 0.76 age decline

why ▾hide ▴

BOSBOS Dan Duquette net −$0.8M net +0.0

received +$1.6M+$1.6M ± $22M expected surplus · −$0.8M realized received 1.1 ± 3 expected · 0.0 realized WAR

receives — most valuable first

Keith Johns2B/DH·26y·R/R

+$1.3M+$1.3M± $22M exp surplusrealized −$0.8M 1.1± 3 exp WARrealized 0.0

Prior

#167 overall draft pick — at the league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

no MLB track record — leans on pedigree

Talent

0.21/yr blended

Horizon

5.5 control yrs × 0.96 age decline

why ▾hide ▴

Each player is valued on what he was expected to produce at the time of the trade, versus what he actually produced for his new team.

Expected WAR blends a player's pedigree (composite top-100 rank / draft slot, or a baseline) with his recent track record, projected over the years of team control acquired. The ± figure is a historically calibrated predictive standard deviation, measuring how widely comparable forecasts have missed around their expected value. Surplus values that production at the FA market price of a win (~$8M/WAR) minus salary — so cost-controlled players carry large surplus and expensive ones little, even at the same WAR. Who won is descriptive, not a skill claim: ~99% of a trade's outcome is unforeseeable at the time.