KCR⇄NYM

KCRKCR Allard Baird net +$0.8M net +0.5

received −$1.6M−$1.6M ± $22M expected surplus · +$0.8M realized received 0.2 ± 3 expected · 0.5 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved KCR's 2004 odds 0% → 0% (+0 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Jaime CerdaP·25y·L/L

−$1.9M−$1.9M± $22M exp surplusrealized +$0.8M 0.2± 3 exp WARrealized 0.5

Prior

#694 overall draft pick — at the league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

recent form -0.1/yr over 1.6 season

Talent

0.06/yr blended

Horizon

4.0 control yrs

why ▾hide ▴

NYMNYM Jim Duquette net −$0.8M net -0.5

received +$0.0M+$0.0M ± $20M expected surplus · +$0.0M realized received 0.6 ± 2 expected · 0.0 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved NYM's 2004 odds 2% → 2% (-0.2 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Shawn SedlacekP·27y·R/R

+$0.2M+$0.2M± $20M exp surplusrealized +$0.0M 0.6± 2 exp WARrealized 0.0

Prior

#407 overall draft pick — at the league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

recent form -0.1/yr over 0.3 season

Talent

0.14/yr blended

Horizon

4.0 control yrs

why ▾hide ▴

Each player is valued on what he was expected to produce at the time of the trade, versus what he actually produced for his new team.

Expected WAR blends a player's pedigree (composite top-100 rank / draft slot, or a baseline) with his recent track record, projected over the years of team control acquired. The ± figure is a historically calibrated predictive standard deviation, measuring how widely comparable forecasts have missed around their expected value. Surplus values that production at the FA market price of a win (~$8M/WAR) minus salary — so cost-controlled players carry large surplus and expensive ones little, even at the same WAR. Who won is descriptive, not a skill claim: ~99% of a trade's outcome is unforeseeable at the time.