NYY⇄TEX

NYYNYY Woody Woodward net +$19.2M net +4.9

received +$2.4M+$2.4M ± $22M expected surplus · +$12.0M realized received 1.2 ± 3 expected · 4.3 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved NYY's 1988 odds 6% → 9% (+3.3 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Don SlaughtC·29y·R/R

+$2.6M+$2.6M± $22M exp surplusrealized +$12.0M 1.2± 3 exp WARrealized 4.3

Prior

no pedigree — league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

recent form 0.6/yr over 1.5 season

Talent

0.45/yr blended

Horizon

3.0 control yrs × 0.93 age decline

why ▾hide ▴

TEXTEX Tom Grieve net −$19.2M net -4.9

received −$3.2M−$3.2M ± $43M expected surplus · −$7.2M realized received 0.2 ± 5 expected · -0.6 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved TEX's 1988 odds 6% → 4% (-2.1 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Brad ArnsbergP·24y·R/R

−$3.4M−$3.4M± $43M exp surplusrealized −$7.2M 0.2± 5 exp WARrealized -0.6

Prior

no pedigree — league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

recent form -0.8/yr over 0.2 season

Talent

0.04/yr blended

Horizon

5.5 control yrs

why ▾hide ▴

Each player is valued on what he was expected to produce at the time of the trade, versus what he actually produced for his new team.

Expected WAR blends a player's pedigree (composite top-100 rank / draft slot, or a baseline) with his recent track record, projected over the years of team control acquired. The ± figure is a historically calibrated predictive standard deviation, measuring how widely comparable forecasts have missed around their expected value. Surplus values that production at the FA market price of a win (~$8M/WAR) minus salary — so cost-controlled players carry large surplus and expensive ones little, even at the same WAR. Who won is descriptive, not a skill claim: ~99% of a trade's outcome is unforeseeable at the time.