NYM⇄ATL

NYMNYM Frank Cashen net +$6.4M net +1.0

received +$1.6M+$1.6M ± $30M expected surplus · −$0.8M realized received 1.2 ± 4 expected · 0.0 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved NYM's 1988 odds 96% → 96% (+0.7 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Kevin BrownP·22y·L/L

+$1.8M+$1.8M± $30M exp surplusrealized −$0.8M 1.2± 4 exp WARrealized -0.0

Prior

no pedigree — league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

no MLB track record — leans on pedigree

Talent

0.21/yr blended

Horizon

5.5 control yrs

why ▾hide ▴

ATLATL Bobby Cox net −$6.4M net -1.0

received −$1.6M−$1.6M ± $38M expected surplus · −$7.2M realized received 0.3 ± 5 expected · -1.0 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved ATL's 1988 odds 0% → 0% (-0 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Terry BlockerOF·28y·L/L

−$1.4M−$1.4M± $38M exp surplusrealized −$7.2M 0.3± 5 exp WARrealized -1.0

Prior

no pedigree — league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

recent form -2.8/yr over 0.1 season

Talent

0.09/yr blended

Horizon

4.0 control yrs × 0.75 age decline

why ▾hide ▴

Each player is valued on what he was expected to produce at the time of the trade, versus what he actually produced for his new team.

Expected WAR blends a player's pedigree (composite top-100 rank / draft slot, or a baseline) with his recent track record, projected over the years of team control acquired. The ± figure is a historically calibrated predictive standard deviation, measuring how widely comparable forecasts have missed around their expected value. Surplus values that production at the FA market price of a win (~$8M/WAR) minus salary — so cost-controlled players carry large surplus and expensive ones little, even at the same WAR. Who won is descriptive, not a skill claim: ~99% of a trade's outcome is unforeseeable at the time.