PHI⇄ATL

PHIPHI Lee Thomas net +$10.4M net +0.6

received +$8.8M+$8.8M ± $19M expected surplus · +$5.6M realized received 1.1 ± 2 expected · 1.2 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved PHI's 1990 odds 4% → 5% (+1.1 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Joe BoeverP·29y·R/R

+$8.8M+$8.8M± $19M exp surplusrealized +$5.6M 1.1± 2 exp WARrealized 1.2

Prior

no pedigree — league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

recent form 0.5/yr over 1.7 season

Talent

0.37/yr blended

Horizon

4.0 control yrs × 0.71 age decline

why ▾hide ▴

ATLATL Bobby Cox net −$10.4M net -0.6

received −$0.8M−$0.8M ± $30M expected surplus · −$4.8M realized received 0.7 ± 4 expected · 0.6 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved ATL's 1990 odds 2% → 2% (-0.5 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Marvin FreemanP·27y·R/R

−$0.8M−$0.8M± $30M exp surplusrealized −$4.8M 0.7± 4 exp WARrealized 0.6

Prior

no pedigree — league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

recent form 0.0/yr over 0.3 season

Talent

0.17/yr blended

Horizon

5.5 control yrs × 0.76 age decline

why ▾hide ▴

Each player is valued on what he was expected to produce at the time of the trade, versus what he actually produced for his new team.

Expected WAR blends a player's pedigree (composite top-100 rank / draft slot, or a baseline) with his recent track record, projected over the years of team control acquired. The ± figure is a historically calibrated predictive standard deviation, measuring how widely comparable forecasts have missed around their expected value. Surplus values that production at the FA market price of a win (~$8M/WAR) minus salary — so cost-controlled players carry large surplus and expensive ones little, even at the same WAR. Who won is descriptive, not a skill claim: ~99% of a trade's outcome is unforeseeable at the time.