WSN⇄CLE

WSNWSN Jim Beattie net +$8.8M net +2.0

received +$1.6M+$1.6M ± $26M expected surplus · +$8.8M realized received 1.2 ± 3 expected · 2.2 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved WSN's 1997 odds 12% → 11% (-0.8 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Steve KlineP·24y·B/L

+$1.8M+$1.8M± $26M exp surplusrealized +$8.8M 1.2± 3 exp WARrealized 2.2

Prior

#223 overall draft pick — at the league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

no MLB track record — leans on pedigree

Talent

0.21/yr blended

Horizon

5.5 control yrs

why ▾hide ▴

CLECLE John Hart net −$8.8M net -2.0

received +$4.0M+$4.0M ± $24M expected surplus · +$0.0M realized received 1.4 ± 3 expected · 0.2 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved CLE's 1997 odds 58% → 60% (+2 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Jeff JudenP·26y·R/R

+$3.8M+$3.8M± $24M exp surplusrealized +$0.0M 1.4± 3 exp WARrealized 0.2

Prior

#12 overall draft pick → 0.47/yr

Evidence

recent form 0.1/yr over 1.4 season

Talent

0.27/yr blended

Horizon

5.0 control yrs

why ▾hide ▴

Each player is valued on what he was expected to produce at the time of the trade, versus what he actually produced for his new team.

Expected WAR blends a player's pedigree (composite top-100 rank / draft slot, or a baseline) with his recent track record, projected over the years of team control acquired. The ± figure is a historically calibrated predictive standard deviation, measuring how widely comparable forecasts have missed around their expected value. Surplus values that production at the FA market price of a win (~$8M/WAR) minus salary — so cost-controlled players carry large surplus and expensive ones little, even at the same WAR. Who won is descriptive, not a skill claim: ~99% of a trade's outcome is unforeseeable at the time.