BAL⇄TOR

BALBAL Pat Gillick net −$14.4M net +2.9

received −$4.8M−$4.8M ± $13M expected surplus · −$18.4M realized received 2.8 ± 2 expected · 2.4 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved BAL's 1998 odds 39% → 48% (+8.7 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Juan GuzmánP·31y·R/R

−$4.4M−$4.4M± $13M exp surplusrealized −$18.4M 2.8± 2 exp WARrealized 2.4

Prior

no pedigree — league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

recent form 3.0/yr over 1.9 season

Talent

1.90/yr blended

Horizon

1.5 control yr × 0.97 age decline

why ▾hide ▴

TORTOR Gord Ash net +$14.4M net -2.9

received +$6.4M+$6.4M ± $19M expected surplus · −$4.0M realized received 2.0 ± 2 expected · -0.5 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved TOR's 1998 odds 54% → 45% (-8.9 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Nerio RodríguezP·27y·R/R

+$5.7M+$5.7M± $18M exp surplusrealized −$4.0M 1.8± 2 exp WARrealized -0.5

Prior

Composite #96.0 pedigree (Baseball America #96 (1997)) — fell off 1 list since, regressed → 0.23/yr

Evidence

recent form 0.9/yr over 0.4 season

Talent

0.39/yr blended

Horizon

5.0 control yrs × 0.93 age decline

why ▾hide ▴

Shannon Carter

+$0.3M+$0.3M± $5M exp surplusrealized +$0.0M 0.2± 1 exp WARrealized 0.0

Unidentified minor-league throw-in — valued at the ~0.2 WAR base rate (most produce nothing)

why ▾hide ▴

Each player is valued on what he was expected to produce at the time of the trade, versus what he actually produced for his new team.

Expected WAR blends a player's pedigree (composite top-100 rank / draft slot, or a baseline) with his recent track record, projected over the years of team control acquired. The ± figure is a historically calibrated predictive standard deviation, measuring how widely comparable forecasts have missed around their expected value. Surplus values that production at the FA market price of a win (~$8M/WAR) minus salary — so cost-controlled players carry large surplus and expensive ones little, even at the same WAR. Who won is descriptive, not a skill claim: ~99% of a trade's outcome is unforeseeable at the time.