TEX⇄BOS

TEXTEX Jon Daniels net +$1.6M net +0.2

received +$1.6M+$1.6M ± $22M expected surplus · +$0.0M realized received 1.2 ± 3 expected · 0.4 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved TEX's 2006 odds 10% → 9% (-0.3 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Luis MendozaP·22y·R/R

+$1.8M+$1.8M± $22M exp surplusrealized +$0.0M 1.2± 3 exp WARrealized 0.4

Prior

no pedigree — league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

no MLB track record — leans on pedigree

Talent

0.21/yr blended

Horizon

5.5 control yrs

why ▾hide ▴

BOSBOS Jed Hoyer net −$1.6M net -0.2

received −$0.8M−$0.8M ± $8M expected surplus · −$1.6M realized received 0.2 ± 1 expected · 0.2 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved BOS's 2006 odds 6% → 6% (+0.2 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Bryan CoreyP·32y·R/R

−$1.2M−$1.2M± $8M exp surplusrealized −$1.6M 0.2± 1 exp WARrealized 0.2

Prior

#333 overall draft pick — at the league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

recent form -0.1/yr over 0.0 season

Talent

0.21/yr blended

Horizon

3.3 control yrs × 0.35 age decline

why ▾hide ▴

Each player is valued on what he was expected to produce at the time of the trade, versus what he actually produced for his new team.

Expected WAR blends a player's pedigree (composite top-100 rank / draft slot, or a baseline) with his recent track record, projected over the years of team control acquired. The ± figure is a historically calibrated predictive standard deviation, measuring how widely comparable forecasts have missed around their expected value. Surplus values that production at the FA market price of a win (~$8M/WAR) minus salary — so cost-controlled players carry large surplus and expensive ones little, even at the same WAR. Who won is descriptive, not a skill claim: ~99% of a trade's outcome is unforeseeable at the time.