MIL⇄TEX

MILMIL Dean Taylor net +$4.0M net +1.3

received −$3.2M−$3.2M ± $20M expected surplus · +$4.0M realized received 0.1 ± 2 expected · 1.3 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved MIL's 2002 odds 0% → 0% (+0.1 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Luis VizcaínoP·27y·R/R

−$3.2M−$3.2M± $20M exp surplusrealized +$4.0M 0.1± 2 exp WARrealized 1.3

Prior

no pedigree — league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

recent form -0.1/yr over 1.3 season

Talent

0.03/yr blended

Horizon

5.0 control yrs × 0.80 age decline

why ▾hide ▴

TEXTEX John Hart net −$4.0M net -1.3

received −$2.4M−$2.4M ± $20M expected surplus · +$0.0M realized received 0.0 ± 2 expected · 0.0 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved TEX's 2002 odds 7% → 5% (-1.8 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Jesús PeñaP·27y·L/L

−$2.2M−$2.2M± $20M exp surplusrealized +$0.0M 0.0± 2 exp WARrealized 0.0

Prior

no pedigree — league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

recent form -0.5/yr over 0.8 season

Talent

-0.09/yr blended

Horizon

3.0 control yrs

why ▾hide ▴

Each player is valued on what he was expected to produce at the time of the trade, versus what he actually produced for his new team.

Expected WAR blends a player's pedigree (composite top-100 rank / draft slot, or a baseline) with his recent track record, projected over the years of team control acquired. The ± figure is a historically calibrated predictive standard deviation, measuring how widely comparable forecasts have missed around their expected value. Surplus values that production at the FA market price of a win (~$8M/WAR) minus salary — so cost-controlled players carry large surplus and expensive ones little, even at the same WAR. Who won is descriptive, not a skill claim: ~99% of a trade's outcome is unforeseeable at the time.