WSN⇄MIN

WSNWSN Murray Cook net +$0.0M net +0.0

received +$0.0M+$0.0M ± $42M expected surplus · +$0.0M realized received 0.9 ± 5 expected · 0.1 realized WAR

receives — most valuable first

Jack O'ConnorP·27y·L/L

+$0.2M+$0.2M± $42M exp surplusrealized +$0.0M 0.9± 5 exp WARrealized 0.1

Prior

no pedigree — league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

no MLB track record — leans on pedigree

Talent

0.21/yr blended

Horizon

5.5 control yrs × 0.79 age decline

why ▾hide ▴

MINMIN Howard Fox net +$0.0M net +0.0

received +$0.8M+$0.8M ± $44M expected surplus · +$0.0M realized received 1.0 ± 6 expected · 0.1 realized WAR

receives — most valuable first

Mike StenhouseOF·27y·L/R

+$0.7M+$0.7M± $44M exp surplusrealized +$0.0M 1.0± 6 exp WARrealized 0.1

Prior

no pedigree — league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

no MLB track record — leans on pedigree

Talent

0.21/yr blended

Horizon

5.5 control yrs × 0.82 age decline

why ▾hide ▴

Each player is valued on what he was expected to produce at the time of the trade, versus what he actually produced for his new team.

Expected WAR blends a player's pedigree (composite top-100 rank / draft slot, or a baseline) with his recent track record, projected over the years of team control acquired. The ± figure is a historically calibrated predictive standard deviation, measuring how widely comparable forecasts have missed around their expected value. Surplus values that production at the FA market price of a win (~$8M/WAR) minus salary — so cost-controlled players carry large surplus and expensive ones little, even at the same WAR. Who won is descriptive, not a skill claim: ~99% of a trade's outcome is unforeseeable at the time.