MIA⇄TBR

MIAMIA Kim Ng net +$2.4M net +0.5

received +$2.4M+$2.4M ± $22M expected surplus · +$2.4M realized received 1.2 ± 3 expected · 0.5 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved MIA's 2021 odds 2% → 2% (+0.2 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

John CurtissP·28y·R/R

+$2.7M+$2.7M± $22M exp surplusrealized +$2.4M 1.2± 3 exp WARrealized 0.5

Prior

#170 overall draft pick — at the league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

recent form 0.5/yr over 0.8 season

Talent

0.33/yr blended

Horizon

5.0 control yrs × 0.74 age decline

why ▾hide ▴

TBRTBR Erik Neander net −$2.4M net -0.5

received +$2.4M+$2.4M ± $22M expected surplus · +$0.0M realized received 1.3 ± 3 expected · 0.0 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved TBR's 2021 odds 87% → 86% (-1.4 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Evan Edwards1B·24y·L/L

+$2.3M+$2.3M± $22M exp surplusrealized +$0.0M 1.3± 3 exp WARrealized 0.0

Prior

#111 overall draft pick — at the league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

no MLB track record — leans on pedigree

Talent

0.21/yr blended

Horizon

6.0 control yrs

why ▾hide ▴

Each player is valued on what he was expected to produce at the time of the trade, versus what he actually produced for his new team.

Expected WAR blends a player's pedigree (composite top-100 rank / draft slot, or a baseline) with his recent track record, projected over the years of team control acquired. The ± figure is a historically calibrated predictive standard deviation, measuring how widely comparable forecasts have missed around their expected value. Surplus values that production at the FA market price of a win (~$8M/WAR) minus salary — so cost-controlled players carry large surplus and expensive ones little, even at the same WAR. Who won is descriptive, not a skill claim: ~99% of a trade's outcome is unforeseeable at the time.