DET⇄SEA

DETDET Randy Smith net +$1.6M net +1.1

received +$64.8M+$64.8M ± $40M expected surplus · −$7.2M realized received 7.5 ± 5 expected · 0.7 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved DET's 1997 odds 1% → 2% (+0.3 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Scott SandersP·28y·R/R

+$62.9M+$62.9M± $30M exp surplusrealized −$5.6M 6.1± 4 exp WARrealized 0.8

Prior

#32 overall draft pick → 0.28/yr

Evidence

recent form 3.2/yr over 1.8 season

Talent

2.04/yr blended

Horizon

3.0 control yrs

why ▾hide ▴

Dean CrowP·24y·L/R

+$1.8M+$1.8M± $26M exp surplusrealized −$1.6M 1.2± 3 exp WARrealized -0.1

Prior

#269 overall draft pick — at the league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

no MLB track record — leans on pedigree

Talent

0.21/yr blended

Horizon

5.5 control yrs

why ▾hide ▴

Carlos Villalobos

+$0.3M+$0.3M± $5M exp surplusrealized +$0.0M 0.2± 1 exp WARrealized 0.0

Unidentified minor-league throw-in — valued at the ~0.2 WAR base rate (most produce nothing)

why ▾hide ▴

SEASEA Woody Woodward net −$1.6M net -1.1

received +$40.8M+$36.0M ± $42M expected surplus · −$8.8M realized received 6.4 ± 5 expected · -0.4 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved SEA's 1997 odds 88% → 86% (-2.4 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Felipe LiraP·25y·R/R

+$34.0M+$34.0M± $38M exp surplusrealized −$4.8M 5.0± 5 exp WARrealized -0.5

Prior

no pedigree — league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

recent form 2.0/yr over 1.6 season

Talent

1.25/yr blended

Horizon

4.0 control yrs

why ▾hide ▴

Omar OlivaresP·29y·R/R

+$6.5M+$2.0M± $15M exp surplusrealized −$4.0M 1.4± 2 exp WARrealized 0.1

Prior

no pedigree — league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

recent form 1.4/yr over 2.0 seasons

Talent

0.92/yr blended

Horizon

1.5 control yr

why ▾hide ▴

Each player is valued on what he was expected to produce at the time of the trade, versus what he actually produced for his new team.

Expected WAR blends a player's pedigree (composite top-100 rank / draft slot, or a baseline) with his recent track record, projected over the years of team control acquired. The ± figure is a historically calibrated predictive standard deviation, measuring how widely comparable forecasts have missed around their expected value. Surplus values that production at the FA market price of a win (~$8M/WAR) minus salary — so cost-controlled players carry large surplus and expensive ones little, even at the same WAR. Who won is descriptive, not a skill claim: ~99% of a trade's outcome is unforeseeable at the time.