BAL⇄MIN

BALBAL Roland Hemond net +$5.6M net +1.4

received +$0.8M+$0.0M ± $7M expected surplus · +$4.0M realized received 0.7 ± 1 expected · 1.3 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved BAL's 1993 odds 45% → 53% (+7.3 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Mike Pagliarulo3B·33y·L/R

+$0.9M+$0.2M± $7M exp surplusrealized +$4.0M 0.7± 1 exp WARrealized 1.3

Prior

no pedigree — league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

recent form 0.8/yr over 1.8 season

Talent

0.54/yr blended

Horizon

1.5 control yr × 0.87 age decline

why ▾hide ▴

MINMIN Terry Ryan net −$5.6M net -1.4

received +$1.6M+$1.6M ± $30M expected surplus · −$1.6M realized received 1.2 ± 4 expected · -0.1 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved MIN's 1993 odds 1% → 1% (-0.3 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Erik SchullstromP·24y·R/R

+$1.8M+$1.8M± $30M exp surplusrealized −$1.6M 1.2± 4 exp WARrealized -0.1

Prior

#60 overall draft pick — at the league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

no MLB track record — leans on pedigree

Talent

0.21/yr blended

Horizon

5.5 control yrs

why ▾hide ▴

Each player is valued on what he was expected to produce at the time of the trade, versus what he actually produced for his new team.

Expected WAR blends a player's pedigree (composite top-100 rank / draft slot, or a baseline) with his recent track record, projected over the years of team control acquired. The ± figure is a historically calibrated predictive standard deviation, measuring how widely comparable forecasts have missed around their expected value. Surplus values that production at the FA market price of a win (~$8M/WAR) minus salary — so cost-controlled players carry large surplus and expensive ones little, even at the same WAR. Who won is descriptive, not a skill claim: ~99% of a trade's outcome is unforeseeable at the time.