NYM⇄STL

NYMNYM Jim Duquette net +$36.0M net +2.3

received −$0.8M−$1.6M ± $10M expected surplus · +$2.4M realized received 0.0 ± 1 expected · 0.6 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved NYM's 2004 odds 1% → 2% (+0.4 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Wilson Delgado2B/SS·31y·B/R

−$0.7M−$1.4M± $10M exp surplusrealized +$2.4M 0.0± 1 exp WARrealized 0.6

Prior

no pedigree — league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

recent form -0.6/yr over 0.7 season

Talent

-0.07/yr blended

Horizon

1.5 control yr

why ▾hide ▴

STLSTL Walt Jocketty net −$36.0M net -2.3

received −$24.8M−$24.8M ± $10M expected surplus · −$33.6M realized received 0.0 ± 1 expected · -1.7 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved STL's 2004 odds 91% → 88% (-2.8 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Roger CedeñoOF·29y·B/R

−$24.7M−$24.7M± $10M exp surplusrealized −$33.6M 0.0± 1 exp WARrealized -1.7

Prior

no pedigree — league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

recent form -0.1/yr over 2.5 seasons

Talent

0.00/yr blended

Horizon

1.5 control yr

why ▾hide ▴

Each player is valued on what he was expected to produce at the time of the trade, versus what he actually produced for his new team.

Expected WAR blends a player's pedigree (composite top-100 rank / draft slot, or a baseline) with his recent track record, projected over the years of team control acquired. The ± figure is a historically calibrated predictive standard deviation, measuring how widely comparable forecasts have missed around their expected value. Surplus values that production at the FA market price of a win (~$8M/WAR) minus salary — so cost-controlled players carry large surplus and expensive ones little, even at the same WAR. Who won is descriptive, not a skill claim: ~99% of a trade's outcome is unforeseeable at the time.