CHW⇄BOS

CHWCHW Ron Schueler net +$1.6M net +0.2

received +$0.0M+$0.0M ± $4M expected surplus · +$0.0M realized received 0.2 ± 0 expected · 0.0 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved CHW's 2000 odds 55% → 56% (+0.9 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Mike Rupp

+$0.3M+$0.3M± $4M exp surplusrealized +$0.0M 0.2± 0 exp WARrealized 0.0

Unidentified minor-league throw-in — valued at the ~0.2 WAR base rate (most produce nothing)

why ▾hide ▴

BOSBOS Dan Duquette net −$1.6M net -0.2

received −$4.0M−$4.0M ± $26M expected surplus · −$1.6M realized received 0.0 ± 3 expected · -0.2 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved BOS's 2000 odds 27% → 26% (-0.7 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Jesús PeñaP·25y·L/L

−$3.7M−$3.7M± $26M exp surplusrealized −$1.6M 0.0± 3 exp WARrealized -0.2

Prior

no pedigree — league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

recent form -0.3/yr over 0.9 season

Talent

-0.02/yr blended

Horizon

5.0 control yrs

why ▾hide ▴

Each player is valued on what he was expected to produce at the time of the trade, versus what he actually produced for his new team.

Expected WAR blends a player's pedigree (composite top-100 rank / draft slot, or a baseline) with his recent track record, projected over the years of team control acquired. The ± figure is a historically calibrated predictive standard deviation, measuring how widely comparable forecasts have missed around their expected value. Surplus values that production at the FA market price of a win (~$8M/WAR) minus salary — so cost-controlled players carry large surplus and expensive ones little, even at the same WAR. Who won is descriptive, not a skill claim: ~99% of a trade's outcome is unforeseeable at the time.