SDP⇄DET

SDPSDP Jack McKeon net +$12.0M net +2.7

received +$4.8M+$4.8M ± $12M expected surplus · +$2.4M realized received 1.0 ± 2 expected · 1.0 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved SDP's 1989 odds 3% → 6% (+2.6 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Luis Salazar3B·33y·R/R

+$4.8M+$4.8M± $12M exp surplusrealized +$2.4M 1.0± 2 exp WARrealized 1.0

Prior

no pedigree — league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

recent form 0.9/yr over 1.5 season

Talent

0.60/yr blended

Horizon

2.0 control yrs × 0.82 age decline

why ▾hide ▴

DETDET Bill Lajoie net −$12.0M net -2.7

received −$4.8M−$4.8M ± $37M expected surplus · −$9.6M realized received 0.0 ± 5 expected · -1.7 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved DET's 1989 odds 0% → 0% (-0.2 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Mike BrumleySS·26y·B/R

−$4.5M−$4.5M± $37M exp surplusrealized −$9.6M 0.0± 5 exp WARrealized -1.7

Prior

no pedigree — league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

recent form -1.5/yr over 0.2 season

Talent

0.00/yr blended

Horizon

5.5 control yrs × 0.91 age decline

why ▾hide ▴

Each player is valued on what he was expected to produce at the time of the trade, versus what he actually produced for his new team.

Expected WAR blends a player's pedigree (composite top-100 rank / draft slot, or a baseline) with his recent track record, projected over the years of team control acquired. The ± figure is a historically calibrated predictive standard deviation, measuring how widely comparable forecasts have missed around their expected value. Surplus values that production at the FA market price of a win (~$8M/WAR) minus salary — so cost-controlled players carry large surplus and expensive ones little, even at the same WAR. Who won is descriptive, not a skill claim: ~99% of a trade's outcome is unforeseeable at the time.