COL⇄MIL⇄OAK

COLCOL Gary Hughes net +$8.8M net +2.3

received +$39.2M+$38.4M ± $26M expected surplus · +$24.8M realized received 7.4 ± 3 expected · 6.8 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved COL's 2000 odds 10% → 10% (-0.4 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Jeff Cirillo3B·30y·R/R

+$24.6M+$24.6M± $21M exp surplusrealized +$36.8M 5.2± 3 exp WARrealized 6.9

Prior

league baseline (track record outweighs draft pedigree) → 0.21/yr

Evidence

recent form 5.0/yr over 2.5 seasons

Talent

3.47/yr blended

Horizon

1.5 control yr × 0.99 age decline

why ▾hide ▴

Scott KarlP·28y·L/L

+$14.4M+$13.7M± $17M exp surplusrealized −$12.0M 2.2± 2 exp WARrealized -0.1

Prior

league baseline (track record outweighs draft pedigree) → 0.21/yr

Evidence

recent form 2.0/yr over 2.5 seasons

Talent

1.45/yr blended

Horizon

1.5 control yr

why ▾hide ▴

MILMIL Sal Bando net +$17.6M net +0.7

received +$25.6M+$25.6M ± $40M expected surplus · +$42.4M realized received 5.4 ± 5 expected · 7.5 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved MIL's 2000 odds 1% → 1% (+0.3 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Jamey WrightP·25y·R/R

+$11.0M+$11.0M± $18M exp surplusrealized +$8.8M 1.8± 2 exp WARrealized 2.2

Prior

#28 overall draft pick → 0.32/yr

Evidence

recent form 1.3/yr over 1.7 season

Talent

0.89/yr blended

Horizon

2.0 control yrs

why ▾hide ▴

Jimmy HaynesP·27y·R/R

+$10.4M+$10.4M± $21M exp surplusrealized +$26.4M 1.7± 3 exp WARrealized 3.0

Prior

league baseline (track record outweighs draft pedigree) → 0.21/yr

Evidence

recent form 1.2/yr over 2.1 seasons

Talent

0.86/yr blended

Horizon

2.0 control yrs

why ▾hide ▴

Henry BlancoC·28y·R/R

+$4.2M+$4.2M± $30M exp surplusrealized +$7.2M 1.9± 4 exp WARrealized 2.3

Prior

no pedigree — league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

recent form 0.8/yr over 0.7 season

Talent

0.44/yr blended

Horizon

5.0 control yrs × 0.85 age decline

why ▾hide ▴

OAKOAK Billy Beane net −$26.4M net -3.0

received +$1.6M+$1.6M ± $22M expected surplus · +$0.0M realized received 1.2 ± 3 expected · 0.0 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved OAK's 2000 odds 48% → 41% (-7.2 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Justin MillerP·22y·R/R

+$1.8M+$1.8M± $22M exp surplusrealized +$0.0M 1.2± 3 exp WARrealized 0.0

Prior

#162 overall draft pick — at the league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

no MLB track record — leans on pedigree

Talent

0.21/yr blended

Horizon

5.5 control yrs

why ▾hide ▴

Each player is valued on what he was expected to produce at the time of the trade, versus what he actually produced for his new team.

Expected WAR blends a player's pedigree (composite top-100 rank / draft slot, or a baseline) with his recent track record, projected over the years of team control acquired. The ± figure is a historically calibrated predictive standard deviation, measuring how widely comparable forecasts have missed around their expected value. Surplus values that production at the FA market price of a win (~$8M/WAR) minus salary — so cost-controlled players carry large surplus and expensive ones little, even at the same WAR. Who won is descriptive, not a skill claim: ~99% of a trade's outcome is unforeseeable at the time.