CHC⇄CLE

CHCCHC Larry Himes net +$30.4M net +5.0

received +$9.6M+$9.6M ± $24M expected surplus · +$12.8M realized received 2.0 ± 3 expected · 4.9 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved CHC's 1993 odds 32% → 42% (+9.3 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Glenallen HillOF·28y·R/R

+$9.9M+$9.9M± $24M exp surplusrealized +$12.8M 2.0± 3 exp WARrealized 4.9

Prior

no pedigree — league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

recent form 1.1/yr over 1.3 season

Talent

0.67/yr blended

Horizon

3.0 control yrs

why ▾hide ▴

CLECLE John Hart net −$30.4M net -5.0

received +$6.4M+$6.4M ± $14M expected surplus · −$17.6M realized received 2.4 ± 2 expected · -0.1 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved CLE's 1993 odds 3% → 2% (-1 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Candy MaldonadoOF·32y·R/R

+$6.6M+$6.6M± $14M exp surplusrealized −$17.6M 2.4± 2 exp WARrealized -0.1

Prior

no pedigree — league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

recent form 2.4/yr over 2.3 seasons

Talent

1.64/yr blended

Horizon

1.5 control yr × 0.96 age decline

why ▾hide ▴

Each player is valued on what he was expected to produce at the time of the trade, versus what he actually produced for his new team.

Expected WAR blends a player's pedigree (composite top-100 rank / draft slot, or a baseline) with his recent track record, projected over the years of team control acquired. The ± figure is a historically calibrated predictive standard deviation, measuring how widely comparable forecasts have missed around their expected value. Surplus values that production at the FA market price of a win (~$8M/WAR) minus salary — so cost-controlled players carry large surplus and expensive ones little, even at the same WAR. Who won is descriptive, not a skill claim: ~99% of a trade's outcome is unforeseeable at the time.