SDP⇄BAL

SDPSDP Kevin Towers net +$0.0M net +0.0

received +$24.8M+$24.8M ± $32M expected surplus · +$0.0M realized received 4.6 ± 4 expected · 0.0 realized WAR

receives — most valuable first

Mark SmithOF·27y·R/R

+$24.9M+$24.9M± $32M exp surplusrealized +$0.0M 4.6± 4 exp WARrealized 0.0

Prior

#9 overall draft pick → 0.57/yr

Evidence

recent form 2.0/yr over 0.3 season

Talent

0.88/yr blended

Horizon

5.5 control yrs × 0.96 age decline

why ▾hide ▴

BALBAL Pat Gillick net +$0.0M net +0.0

received +$2.4M+$2.4M ± $28M expected surplus · +$0.0M realized received 1.3 ± 4 expected · 0.0 realized WAR

receives — most valuable first

Leroy McKinnisC·24y·R/R

+$2.3M+$2.3M± $28M exp surplusrealized +$0.0M 1.3± 4 exp WARrealized 0.0

Prior

#898 overall draft pick — at the league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

no MLB track record — leans on pedigree

Talent

0.21/yr blended

Horizon

6.0 control yrs

why ▾hide ▴

Each player is valued on what he was expected to produce at the time of the trade, versus what he actually produced for his new team.

Expected WAR blends a player's pedigree (composite top-100 rank / draft slot, or a baseline) with his recent track record, projected over the years of team control acquired. The ± figure is a historically calibrated predictive standard deviation, measuring how widely comparable forecasts have missed around their expected value. Surplus values that production at the FA market price of a win (~$8M/WAR) minus salary — so cost-controlled players carry large surplus and expensive ones little, even at the same WAR. Who won is descriptive, not a skill claim: ~99% of a trade's outcome is unforeseeable at the time.