SFG⇄BAL

SFGSFG Bob Quinn net +$1.6M net +0.9

received −$3.2M−$3.2M ± $26M expected surplus · +$0.0M realized received 0.3 ± 3 expected · 0.7 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved SFG's 1993 odds 81% → 80% (-0.4 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Steve Scarsone2B/3B·27y·R/R

−$2.9M−$2.9M± $26M exp surplusrealized +$0.0M 0.3± 3 exp WARrealized 0.7

Prior

no pedigree — league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

recent form -1.2/yr over 0.1 season

Talent

0.08/yr blended

Horizon

5.5 control yrs × 0.73 age decline

why ▾hide ▴

BALBAL Roland Hemond net −$1.6M net -0.9

received +$9.6M+$9.6M ± $30M expected surplus · −$1.6M realized received 1.9 ± 4 expected · -0.2 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved BAL's 1993 odds 52% → 53% (+0.7 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Mark LeonardOF·28y·L/R

+$9.4M+$9.4M± $30M exp surplusrealized −$1.6M 1.9± 4 exp WARrealized -0.2

Prior

league baseline (track record outweighs draft pedigree) → 0.21/yr

Evidence

recent form 1.1/yr over 0.7 season

Talent

0.51/yr blended

Horizon

4.0 control yrs × 0.95 age decline

why ▾hide ▴

Each player is valued on what he was expected to produce at the time of the trade, versus what he actually produced for his new team.

Expected WAR blends a player's pedigree (composite top-100 rank / draft slot, or a baseline) with his recent track record, projected over the years of team control acquired. The ± figure is a historically calibrated predictive standard deviation, measuring how widely comparable forecasts have missed around their expected value. Surplus values that production at the FA market price of a win (~$8M/WAR) minus salary — so cost-controlled players carry large surplus and expensive ones little, even at the same WAR. Who won is descriptive, not a skill claim: ~99% of a trade's outcome is unforeseeable at the time.