NYM⇄BAL

NYMNYM Frank Cashen net +$4.8M net +0.2

received +$2.4M+$2.4M ± $33M expected surplus · −$0.8M realized received 1.4 ± 4 expected · 0.2 realized WAR

receives — most valuable first

Blaine BeattyP·24y·L/L

+$1.8M+$1.8M± $30M exp surplusrealized −$0.8M 1.2± 4 exp WARrealized 0.2

Prior

#227 overall draft pick — at the league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

no MLB track record — leans on pedigree

Talent

0.21/yr blended

Horizon

5.5 control yrs

why ▾hide ▴

Greg Talamantez

+$0.3M+$0.3M± $14M exp surplusrealized +$0.0M 0.2± 2 exp WARrealized 0.0

Unidentified minor-league throw-in — valued at the ~0.2 WAR base rate (most produce nothing)

why ▾hide ▴

BALBAL Hank Peters net −$4.8M net -0.2

received −$0.8M−$0.8M ± $15M expected surplus · −$5.6M realized received 0.2 ± 2 expected · 0.0 realized WAR

receives — most valuable first

Doug SiskP·30y·R/R

−$1.2M−$1.2M± $15M exp surplusrealized −$5.6M 0.2± 2 exp WARrealized 0.0

Prior

no pedigree — league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

recent form 0.1/yr over 2.1 seasons

Talent

0.15/yr blended

Horizon

3.0 control yrs × 0.37 age decline

why ▾hide ▴

Each player is valued on what he was expected to produce at the time of the trade, versus what he actually produced for his new team.

Expected WAR blends a player's pedigree (composite top-100 rank / draft slot, or a baseline) with his recent track record, projected over the years of team control acquired. The ± figure is a historically calibrated predictive standard deviation, measuring how widely comparable forecasts have missed around their expected value. Surplus values that production at the FA market price of a win (~$8M/WAR) minus salary — so cost-controlled players carry large surplus and expensive ones little, even at the same WAR. Who won is descriptive, not a skill claim: ~99% of a trade's outcome is unforeseeable at the time.