PHI⇄MIN

PHIPHI Lee Thomas net +$0.0M net +0.0

received +$3.2M+$3.2M ± $30M expected surplus · +$0.0M realized received 1.5 ± 4 expected · 0.0 realized WAR

receives — most valuable first

Mica Lewis2B·26y·R/R

+$3.4M+$3.4M± $30M exp surplusrealized +$0.0M 1.5± 4 exp WARrealized 0.0

Prior

#37 overall draft pick → 0.26/yr

Evidence

no MLB track record — leans on pedigree

Talent

0.26/yr blended

Horizon

6.0 control yrs × 0.94 age decline

why ▾hide ▴

MINMIN Terry Ryan net +$0.0M net +0.0

received +$0.8M+$0.8M ± $23M expected surplus · +$0.0M realized received 1.0 ± 3 expected · 0.0 realized WAR

receives — most valuable first

Jeff GrotewoldDH·27y·L/R

+$0.7M+$0.7M± $23M exp surplusrealized +$0.0M 1.0± 3 exp WARrealized 0.0

Prior

no pedigree — league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

recent form 0.2/yr over 0.5 season

Talent

0.22/yr blended

Horizon

5.5 control yrs × 0.83 age decline

why ▾hide ▴

Each player is valued on what he was expected to produce at the time of the trade, versus what he actually produced for his new team.

Expected WAR blends a player's pedigree (composite top-100 rank / draft slot, or a baseline) with his recent track record, projected over the years of team control acquired. The ± figure is a historically calibrated predictive standard deviation, measuring how widely comparable forecasts have missed around their expected value. Surplus values that production at the FA market price of a win (~$8M/WAR) minus salary — so cost-controlled players carry large surplus and expensive ones little, even at the same WAR. Who won is descriptive, not a skill claim: ~99% of a trade's outcome is unforeseeable at the time.