TEX⇄HOU

TEXTEX Tom Grieve net +$6.4M net +1.7

received −$4.8M−$4.8M ± $11M expected surplus · +$6.4M realized received 0.0 ± 1 expected · 1.7 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved TEX's 1993 odds 17% → 19% (+2 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Chris JamesOF·30y·R/R

−$5.0M−$5.0M± $11M exp surplusrealized +$6.4M 0.0± 1 exp WARrealized 1.7

Prior

no pedigree — league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

recent form -0.4/yr over 2.1 seasons

Talent

-0.21/yr blended

Horizon

1.5 control yr

why ▾hide ▴

HOUHOU Bill Wood net −$6.4M net -1.7

received +$0.0M+$0.0M ± $10M expected surplus · +$0.0M realized received 0.2 ± 1 expected · 0.0 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved HOU's 1993 odds 81% → 79% (-2.1 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Dave Gandolph

+$0.3M+$0.3M± $10M exp surplusrealized +$0.0M 0.2± 1 exp WARrealized 0.0

Unidentified minor-league throw-in — valued at the ~0.2 WAR base rate (most produce nothing)

why ▾hide ▴

Each player is valued on what he was expected to produce at the time of the trade, versus what he actually produced for his new team.

Expected WAR blends a player's pedigree (composite top-100 rank / draft slot, or a baseline) with his recent track record, projected over the years of team control acquired. The ± figure is a historically calibrated predictive standard deviation, measuring how widely comparable forecasts have missed around their expected value. Surplus values that production at the FA market price of a win (~$8M/WAR) minus salary — so cost-controlled players carry large surplus and expensive ones little, even at the same WAR. Who won is descriptive, not a skill claim: ~99% of a trade's outcome is unforeseeable at the time.