SDP⇄NYM

SDPSDP Joe McIlvaine net −$0.8M net +0.1

received +$2.4M+$2.4M ± $30M expected surplus · −$2.4M realized received 1.4 ± 4 expected · 0.0 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved SDP's 1994 odds 2% → 2% (+0.1 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Marc KroonP·21y·B/R

+$1.8M+$1.8M± $29M exp surplusrealized −$2.4M 1.2± 4 exp WARrealized -0.0

Prior

#72 overall draft pick — at the league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

no MLB track record — leans on pedigree

Talent

0.21/yr blended

Horizon

5.5 control yrs

why ▾hide ▴

Randy Curtis

+$0.3M+$0.3M± $10M exp surplusrealized +$0.0M 0.2± 1 exp WARrealized 0.0

Unidentified minor-league throw-in — valued at the ~0.2 WAR base rate (most produce nothing)

why ▾hide ▴

NYMNYM Frank Cashen net +$0.8M net -0.1

received +$10.4M+$10.4M ± $52M expected surplus · −$1.6M realized received 4.3 ± 6 expected · -0.1 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved NYM's 1994 odds 2% → 1% (-0.1 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Frank SeminaraP·27y·R/R

+$6.1M+$6.1M± $30M exp surplusrealized −$1.6M 1.8± 4 exp WARrealized -0.1

Prior

#313 overall draft pick — at the league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

recent form 0.7/yr over 1.0 season

Talent

0.45/yr blended

Horizon

4.0 control yrs

why ▾hide ▴

Tracy SandersOF·24y·L/R

+$2.3M+$2.3M± $31M exp surplusrealized +$0.0M 1.3± 4 exp WARrealized 0.0

Prior

#1365 overall draft pick — at the league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

no MLB track record — leans on pedigree

Talent

0.21/yr blended

Horizon

6.0 control yrs

why ▾hide ▴

Pablo MartínezSS·25y·B/R

+$1.8M+$1.8M± $29M exp surplusrealized +$0.0M 1.2± 4 exp WARrealized 0.0

Prior

no pedigree — league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

no MLB track record — leans on pedigree

Talent

0.21/yr blended

Horizon

5.5 control yrs

why ▾hide ▴

Each player is valued on what he was expected to produce at the time of the trade, versus what he actually produced for his new team.

Expected WAR blends a player's pedigree (composite top-100 rank / draft slot, or a baseline) with his recent track record, projected over the years of team control acquired. The ± figure is a historically calibrated predictive standard deviation, measuring how widely comparable forecasts have missed around their expected value. Surplus values that production at the FA market price of a win (~$8M/WAR) minus salary — so cost-controlled players carry large surplus and expensive ones little, even at the same WAR. Who won is descriptive, not a skill claim: ~99% of a trade's outcome is unforeseeable at the time.