SDP⇄TEX

SDPSDP Kevin Towers net −$4.8M net +2.5

received −$55.2M−$55.2M ± $14M expected surplus · −$53.6M realized received 1.3 ± 2 expected · 1.5 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved SDP's 2005 odds 25% → 29% (+4.9 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Chan Ho ParkP·32y·R/R

−$55.4M−$55.4M± $14M exp surplusrealized −$53.6M 1.3± 2 exp WARrealized 1.5

Prior

no pedigree — league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

recent form 1.4/yr over 1.8 season

Talent

0.94/yr blended

Horizon

1.5 control yr × 0.94 age decline

why ▾hide ▴

TEXTEX John Hart net +$4.8M net -2.5

received −$25.6M−$25.6M ± $15M expected surplus · −$48.8M realized received 2.7 ± 2 expected · -1.0 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved TEX's 2005 odds 21% → 17% (-3.8 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Phil Nevin1B/3B·34y·R/R

−$25.8M−$25.8M± $15M exp surplusrealized −$48.8M 2.7± 2 exp WARrealized -1.0

Prior

league baseline (track record outweighs draft pedigree) → 0.39/yr

Evidence

recent form 2.7/yr over 2.2 seasons

Talent

1.86/yr blended

Horizon

1.5 control yr × 0.95 age decline

why ▾hide ▴

Each player is valued on what he was expected to produce at the time of the trade, versus what he actually produced for his new team.

Expected WAR blends a player's pedigree (composite top-100 rank / draft slot, or a baseline) with his recent track record, projected over the years of team control acquired. The ± figure is a historically calibrated predictive standard deviation, measuring how widely comparable forecasts have missed around their expected value. Surplus values that production at the FA market price of a win (~$8M/WAR) minus salary — so cost-controlled players carry large surplus and expensive ones little, even at the same WAR. Who won is descriptive, not a skill claim: ~99% of a trade's outcome is unforeseeable at the time.