MIA⇄OAK

MIAMIA Kim Ng net +$55.2M net +5.0

received +$38.4M+$38.4M ± $44M expected surplus · +$74.4M realized received 5.5 ± 6 expected · 7.0 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved MIA's 2021 odds 3% → 2% (-1 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Jesús LuzardoP·23y·L/L

+$38.1M+$38.1M± $44M exp surplusrealized +$74.4M 5.5± 6 exp WARrealized 7.0

Prior

Composite #10.5 pedigree (Baseball America #9 (2020) / MLB Pipeline #12 (2020)) — fell off 1 list since, regressed → 0.75/yr

Evidence

recent form 1.9/yr over 0.5 season

Talent

1.09/yr blended

Horizon

5.0 control yrs

why ▾hide ▴

OAKOAK Billy Beane net −$55.2M net -5.0

received +$23.2M+$23.2M ± $10M expected surplus · +$19.2M realized received 2.4 ± 1 expected · 2.0 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved OAK's 2021 odds 24% → 32% (+8.6 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Starling MarteOF·32y·R/R

+$23.2M+$23.2M± $10M exp surplusrealized +$19.2M 2.4± 1 exp WARrealized 2.0

Prior

no pedigree — league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

recent form 3.8/yr over 1.9 season

Talent

2.42/yr blended

Horizon

1.0 control yr

why ▾hide ▴

Each player is valued on what he was expected to produce at the time of the trade, versus what he actually produced for his new team.

Expected WAR blends a player's pedigree (composite top-100 rank / draft slot, or a baseline) with his recent track record, projected over the years of team control acquired. The ± figure is a historically calibrated predictive standard deviation, measuring how widely comparable forecasts have missed around their expected value. Surplus values that production at the FA market price of a win (~$8M/WAR) minus salary — so cost-controlled players carry large surplus and expensive ones little, even at the same WAR. Who won is descriptive, not a skill claim: ~99% of a trade's outcome is unforeseeable at the time.