DET⇄SDP

DETDET Bill Lajoie net +$0.8M net +0.4

received +$18.4M+$18.4M ± $23M expected surplus · −$8.0M realized received 2.7 ± 3 expected · 0.3 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved DET's 1986 odds 59% → 60% (+0.7 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Mark ThurmondP·29y·L/L

+$18.2M+$18.2M± $23M exp surplusrealized −$8.0M 2.7± 3 exp WARrealized 0.3

Prior

no pedigree — league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

recent form 1.3/yr over 1.0 season

Talent

0.72/yr blended

Horizon

5.0 control yrs × 0.75 age decline

why ▾hide ▴

SDPSDP Jack McKeon net −$0.8M net -0.4

received +$46.4M+$46.4M ± $30M expected surplus · −$8.8M realized received 6.7 ± 4 expected · -0.1 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved SDP's 1986 odds 2% → 2% (-0.1 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Dave LaPointP·26y·L/L

+$46.6M+$46.6M± $30M exp surplusrealized −$8.8M 6.7± 4 exp WARrealized -0.1

Prior

no pedigree — league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

recent form 2.7/yr over 1.0 season

Talent

1.35/yr blended

Horizon

5.0 control yrs

why ▾hide ▴

Each player is valued on what he was expected to produce at the time of the trade, versus what he actually produced for his new team.

Expected WAR blends a player's pedigree (composite top-100 rank / draft slot, or a baseline) with his recent track record, projected over the years of team control acquired. The ± figure is a historically calibrated predictive standard deviation, measuring how widely comparable forecasts have missed around their expected value. Surplus values that production at the FA market price of a win (~$8M/WAR) minus salary — so cost-controlled players carry large surplus and expensive ones little, even at the same WAR. Who won is descriptive, not a skill claim: ~99% of a trade's outcome is unforeseeable at the time.