ARI⇄PIT

ARIARI Jerry Dipoto net +$1.6M net +1.0

received +$7.2M+$7.2M ± $10M expected surplus · +$1.6M realized received 1.3 ± 1 expected · 1.0 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved ARI's 2011 odds 49% → 55% (+6 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Zach DukeP·28y·L/L

+$7.5M+$7.5M± $10M exp surplusrealized +$1.6M 1.3± 1 exp WARrealized 1.0

Prior

league baseline (track record outweighs draft pedigree) → 0.21/yr

Evidence

recent form 1.8/yr over 2.5 seasons

Talent

1.27/yr blended

Horizon

1.0 control yr

why ▾hide ▴

PITPIT Neal Huntington net −$1.6M net -1.0

received −$0.8M−$0.8M ± $27M expected surplus · +$0.0M realized received 0.7 ± 3 expected · 0.0 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved PIT's 2011 odds 0% → 0% (-0.1 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

César ValdezP·26y·R/R

−$0.8M−$0.8M± $27M exp surplusrealized +$0.0M 0.7± 3 exp WARrealized 0.0

Prior

no pedigree — league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

recent form -0.2/yr over 0.3 season

Talent

0.13/yr blended

Horizon

5.5 control yrs × 0.91 age decline

why ▾hide ▴

Each player is valued on what he was expected to produce at the time of the trade, versus what he actually produced for his new team.

Expected WAR blends a player's pedigree (composite top-100 rank / draft slot, or a baseline) with his recent track record, projected over the years of team control acquired. The ± figure is a historically calibrated predictive standard deviation, measuring how widely comparable forecasts have missed around their expected value. Surplus values that production at the FA market price of a win (~$8M/WAR) minus salary — so cost-controlled players carry large surplus and expensive ones little, even at the same WAR. Who won is descriptive, not a skill claim: ~99% of a trade's outcome is unforeseeable at the time.