SDP⇄SFG

SDPSDP Joe McIlvaine net +$2.4M net +0.3

received −$1.6M−$1.6M ± $15M expected surplus · +$0.0M realized received 0.4 ± 2 expected · 0.0 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved SDP's 1993 odds 0% → 0% (+0 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Jim PenaP·28y·L/L

−$1.6M−$1.6M± $15M exp surplusrealized +$0.0M 0.4± 2 exp WARrealized 0.0

Prior

#396 overall draft pick — at the league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

recent form -0.0/yr over 0.8 season

Talent

0.12/yr blended

Horizon

5.0 control yrs × 0.60 age decline

why ▾hide ▴

SFGSFG Al Rosen net −$2.4M net -0.3

received +$0.8M+$0.8M ± $54M expected surplus · −$2.4M realized received 0.9 ± 7 expected · -0.3 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved SFG's 1993 odds 82% → 80% (-1.2 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Paul Faries2B·28y·R/R

+$1.0M+$1.0M± $54M exp surplusrealized −$2.4M 0.9± 7 exp WARrealized -0.3

Prior

#587 overall draft pick — at the league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

recent form 0.3/yr over 0.4 season

Talent

0.24/yr blended

Horizon

4.0 control yrs × 0.90 age decline

why ▾hide ▴

Each player is valued on what he was expected to produce at the time of the trade, versus what he actually produced for his new team.

Expected WAR blends a player's pedigree (composite top-100 rank / draft slot, or a baseline) with his recent track record, projected over the years of team control acquired. The ± figure is a historically calibrated predictive standard deviation, measuring how widely comparable forecasts have missed around their expected value. Surplus values that production at the FA market price of a win (~$8M/WAR) minus salary — so cost-controlled players carry large surplus and expensive ones little, even at the same WAR. Who won is descriptive, not a skill claim: ~99% of a trade's outcome is unforeseeable at the time.