TOR⇄PHI

TORTOR JP Ricciardi net +$9.6M net +0.3

received +$4.0M+$4.0M ± $23M expected surplus · +$1.6M realized received 1.5 ± 3 expected · 0.8 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved TOR's 2002 odds 6% → 7% (+1.8 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Cliff PolitteP·28y·R/R

+$4.3M+$4.3M± $23M exp surplusrealized +$1.6M 1.5± 3 exp WARrealized 0.8

Prior

#1438 overall draft pick — at the league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

recent form 0.5/yr over 1.3 season

Talent

0.38/yr blended

Horizon

5.0 control yrs × 0.78 age decline

why ▾hide ▴

PHIPHI Ed Wade net −$9.6M net -0.3

received −$5.6M−$5.6M ± $0M expected surplus · −$8.0M realized received 0.0 ± 0 expected · 0.5 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved PHI's 2002 odds 30% → 24% (-5.9 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Dan PlesacP·40y·L/L

−$5.7M−$5.7M± $0M exp surplusrealized −$8.0M 0.0± 0 exp WARrealized 0.5

Prior

no pedigree — league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

recent form 0.9/yr over 2.9 seasons

Talent

0.67/yr blended

Horizon

0.0 control yr

why ▾hide ▴

Each player is valued on what he was expected to produce at the time of the trade, versus what he actually produced for his new team.

Expected WAR blends a player's pedigree (composite top-100 rank / draft slot, or a baseline) with his recent track record, projected over the years of team control acquired. The ± figure is a historically calibrated predictive standard deviation, measuring how widely comparable forecasts have missed around their expected value. Surplus values that production at the FA market price of a win (~$8M/WAR) minus salary — so cost-controlled players carry large surplus and expensive ones little, even at the same WAR. Who won is descriptive, not a skill claim: ~99% of a trade's outcome is unforeseeable at the time.