SEA⇄PHI

SEASEA Woody Woodward net +$3.2M net +0.4

received +$1.6M+$1.6M ± $22M expected surplus · +$0.0M realized received 1.1 ± 3 expected · 0.0 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved SEA's 1999 odds 3% → 4% (+0.3 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Jose Flores2B·26y·R/R

+$1.3M+$1.3M± $22M exp surplusrealized +$0.0M 1.1± 3 exp WARrealized 0.0

Prior

#651 overall draft pick — at the league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

no MLB track record — leans on pedigree

Talent

0.21/yr blended

Horizon

5.5 control yrs × 0.96 age decline

why ▾hide ▴

PHIPHI Ed Wade net −$3.2M net -0.4

received −$2.4M−$2.4M ± $18M expected surplus · −$3.2M realized received 0.0 ± 2 expected · -0.4 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved PHI's 1999 odds 9% → 8% (-0.8 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Domingo Cedeño2B/SS·30y·B/R

−$2.2M−$2.2M± $18M exp surplusrealized −$3.2M 0.0± 2 exp WARrealized -0.4

Prior

no pedigree — league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

recent form -0.2/yr over 1.3 season

Talent

-0.01/yr blended

Horizon

3.0 control yrs

why ▾hide ▴

Each player is valued on what he was expected to produce at the time of the trade, versus what he actually produced for his new team.

Expected WAR blends a player's pedigree (composite top-100 rank / draft slot, or a baseline) with his recent track record, projected over the years of team control acquired. The ± figure is a historically calibrated predictive standard deviation, measuring how widely comparable forecasts have missed around their expected value. Surplus values that production at the FA market price of a win (~$8M/WAR) minus salary — so cost-controlled players carry large surplus and expensive ones little, even at the same WAR. Who won is descriptive, not a skill claim: ~99% of a trade's outcome is unforeseeable at the time.