TEX⇄CHW

TEXTEX Sandy Johnson net +$4.0M net +0.4

received −$3.2M−$3.2M ± $58M expected surplus · −$6.4M realized received 0.0 ± 7 expected · -1.0 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved TEX's 1994 odds 2% → 2% (-0.2 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Esteban BeltréSS·26y·R/R

−$3.0M−$3.0M± $58M exp surplusrealized −$6.4M 0.0± 7 exp WARrealized -1.0

Prior

no pedigree — league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

recent form -2.8/yr over 0.2 season

Talent

-0.28/yr blended

Horizon

4.0 control yrs

why ▾hide ▴

CHWCHW Ron Schueler net −$4.0M net -0.4

received +$1.6M+$1.6M ± $29M expected surplus · −$10.4M realized received 1.2 ± 4 expected · -1.4 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved CHW's 1994 odds 93% → 94% (+1 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Scott EyreP·22y·L/L

+$1.8M+$1.8M± $29M exp surplusrealized −$10.4M 1.2± 4 exp WARrealized -1.4

Prior

#248 overall draft pick — at the league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

no MLB track record — leans on pedigree

Talent

0.21/yr blended

Horizon

5.5 control yrs

why ▾hide ▴

Each player is valued on what he was expected to produce at the time of the trade, versus what he actually produced for his new team.

Expected WAR blends a player's pedigree (composite top-100 rank / draft slot, or a baseline) with his recent track record, projected over the years of team control acquired. The ± figure is a historically calibrated predictive standard deviation, measuring how widely comparable forecasts have missed around their expected value. Surplus values that production at the FA market price of a win (~$8M/WAR) minus salary — so cost-controlled players carry large surplus and expensive ones little, even at the same WAR. Who won is descriptive, not a skill claim: ~99% of a trade's outcome is unforeseeable at the time.