CHW⇄LAD

CHWCHW Larry Himes net +$10.4M net +1.0

received +$10.4M+$10.4M ± $26M expected surplus · +$1.6M realized received 3.0 ± 3 expected · 0.8 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved CHW's 1988 odds 0% → 0% (+0 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Shawn HillegasP·23y·R/R

+$10.5M+$10.5M± $26M exp surplusrealized +$1.6M 3.0± 3 exp WARrealized 0.8

Prior

no pedigree — league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

recent form 1.5/yr over 0.4 season

Talent

0.54/yr blended

Horizon

5.5 control yrs

why ▾hide ▴

LADLAD Fred Claire net −$10.4M net -1.0

received +$1.6M+$1.6M ± $30M expected surplus · −$8.8M realized received 0.7 ± 4 expected · -0.2 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved LAD's 1988 odds 43% → 40% (-2.6 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Ricky HortonP·28y·L/L

+$1.5M+$1.5M± $30M exp surplusrealized −$8.8M 0.7± 4 exp WARrealized -0.2

Prior

no pedigree — league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

recent form 0.3/yr over 2.1 seasons

Talent

0.24/yr blended

Horizon

3.0 control yrs

why ▾hide ▴

Each player is valued on what he was expected to produce at the time of the trade, versus what he actually produced for his new team.

Expected WAR blends a player's pedigree (composite top-100 rank / draft slot, or a baseline) with his recent track record, projected over the years of team control acquired. The ± figure is a historically calibrated predictive standard deviation, measuring how widely comparable forecasts have missed around their expected value. Surplus values that production at the FA market price of a win (~$8M/WAR) minus salary — so cost-controlled players carry large surplus and expensive ones little, even at the same WAR. Who won is descriptive, not a skill claim: ~99% of a trade's outcome is unforeseeable at the time.