ARI⇄ANA

ARIARI Mike Hazen net +$0.0M net +0.1

received +$0.8M+$0.8M ± $6M expected surplus · +$0.0M realized received 0.2 ± 1 expected · 0.1 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved ARI's 2017 odds 68% → 68% (+0.3 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

David HernandezP·32y·R/R

+$0.5M+$0.5M± $6M exp surplusrealized +$0.0M 0.2± 1 exp WARrealized 0.1

Prior

league baseline (track record outweighs draft pedigree) → 0.21/yr

Evidence

recent form 0.3/yr over 2.3 seasons

Talent

0.25/yr blended

Horizon

1.0 control yr

why ▾hide ▴

ANAANA Billy Eppler net +$0.0M net -0.1

received +$1.6M+$1.6M ± $19M expected surplus · +$0.0M realized received 1.2 ± 2 expected · 0.0 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved ANA's 2017 odds 4% → 4% (-0.1 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Luís MaderoP·20y·R/R

+$1.8M+$1.8M± $19M exp surplusrealized +$0.0M 1.2± 2 exp WARrealized 0.0

Prior

no pedigree — league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

no MLB track record — leans on pedigree

Talent

0.21/yr blended

Horizon

5.5 control yrs

why ▾hide ▴

Each player is valued on what he was expected to produce at the time of the trade, versus what he actually produced for his new team.

Expected WAR blends a player's pedigree (composite top-100 rank / draft slot, or a baseline) with his recent track record, projected over the years of team control acquired. The ± figure is a historically calibrated predictive standard deviation, measuring how widely comparable forecasts have missed around their expected value. Surplus values that production at the FA market price of a win (~$8M/WAR) minus salary — so cost-controlled players carry large surplus and expensive ones little, even at the same WAR. Who won is descriptive, not a skill claim: ~99% of a trade's outcome is unforeseeable at the time.