SFG⇄SEA

SFGSFG Al Rosen net +$8.8M net +1.5

received +$3.2M+$3.2M ± $26M expected surplus · +$5.6M realized received 1.2 ± 3 expected · 1.2 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved SFG's 1988 odds 43% → 51% (+7.6 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Donell NixonOF·26y·R/R

+$3.5M+$3.5M± $26M exp surplusrealized +$5.6M 1.2± 3 exp WARrealized 1.2

Prior

no pedigree — league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

recent form 0.3/yr over 0.3 season

Talent

0.23/yr blended

Horizon

5.5 control yrs × 0.96 age decline

why ▾hide ▴

SEASEA Dick Balderson net −$8.8M net -1.5

received +$0.0M+$0.0M ± $11M expected surplus · −$3.2M realized received 0.4 ± 1 expected · -0.3 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved SEA's 1988 odds 11% → 9% (-2.7 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Rod ScurryP·32y·L/L

−$0.1M−$0.1M± $11M exp surplusrealized −$3.2M 0.4± 1 exp WARrealized -0.3

Prior

no pedigree — league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

recent form 0.4/yr over 1.1 season

Talent

0.29/yr blended

Horizon

3.0 control yrs × 0.47 age decline

why ▾hide ▴

Each player is valued on what he was expected to produce at the time of the trade, versus what he actually produced for his new team.

Expected WAR blends a player's pedigree (composite top-100 rank / draft slot, or a baseline) with his recent track record, projected over the years of team control acquired. The ± figure is a historically calibrated predictive standard deviation, measuring how widely comparable forecasts have missed around their expected value. Surplus values that production at the FA market price of a win (~$8M/WAR) minus salary — so cost-controlled players carry large surplus and expensive ones little, even at the same WAR. Who won is descriptive, not a skill claim: ~99% of a trade's outcome is unforeseeable at the time.