MIN⇄DET

MINMIN Andy MacPhail net −$0.8M net +0.0

received +$4.0M+$4.0M ± $23M expected surplus · −$0.8M realized received 1.2 ± 3 expected · 0.0 realized WAR

receives — most valuable first

Karl BestP·29y·R/R

+$4.0M+$4.0M± $23M exp surplusrealized −$0.8M 1.2± 3 exp WARrealized -0.0

Prior

no pedigree — league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

recent form 0.8/yr over 0.8 season

Talent

0.44/yr blended

Horizon

3.0 control yrs × 0.90 age decline

why ▾hide ▴

DETDET Bill Lajoie net +$0.8M net +0.0

received +$4.8M+$4.8M ± $25M expected surplus · +$0.0M realized received 1.4 ± 3 expected · 0.0 realized WAR

receives — most valuable first

Don SchulzeP·25y·R/R

+$4.6M+$4.6M± $25M exp surplusrealized +$0.0M 1.4± 3 exp WARrealized 0.0

Prior

no pedigree — league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

recent form 0.8/yr over 0.8 season

Talent

0.47/yr blended

Horizon

3.0 control yrs

why ▾hide ▴

Each player is valued on what he was expected to produce at the time of the trade, versus what he actually produced for his new team.

Expected WAR blends a player's pedigree (composite top-100 rank / draft slot, or a baseline) with his recent track record, projected over the years of team control acquired. The ± figure is a historically calibrated predictive standard deviation, measuring how widely comparable forecasts have missed around their expected value. Surplus values that production at the FA market price of a win (~$8M/WAR) minus salary — so cost-controlled players carry large surplus and expensive ones little, even at the same WAR. Who won is descriptive, not a skill claim: ~99% of a trade's outcome is unforeseeable at the time.