CHW⇄PHI

CHWCHW Kenny Williams net +$137.6M net +15.0

received +$11.2M+$11.2M ± $35M expected surplus · +$120.0M realized received 2.5 ± 4 expected · 15.3 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved CHW's 2007 odds 1% → 1% (-0.1 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Gio GonzalezP·21y·R/L

+$15.5M+$15.5M± $22M exp surplusrealized −$1.6M 2.5± 3 exp WARrealized -0.0

Prior

Composite #72.0 prospect (Baseball America #72 (2007)) → 0.46/yr

Evidence

no MLB track record — leans on pedigree

Talent

0.46/yr blended

Horizon

5.5 control yrs

why ▾hide ▴

Gavin FloydP·24y·R/R

−$4.5M−$4.5M± $27M exp surplusrealized +$121.6M 0.0± 3 exp WARrealized 15.3

Prior

#4 overall draft pick → 0.27/yr

Evidence

recent form -1.4/yr over 0.6 season

Talent

-0.29/yr blended

Horizon

5.5 control yrs

why ▾hide ▴

PHIPHI Pat Gillick net −$137.6M net -15.0

received +$37.6M+$36.8M ± $20M expected surplus · −$17.6M realized received 3.7 ± 2 expected · 0.3 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved PHI's 2007 odds 67% → 69% (+2.2 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Freddy GarcíaP·30y·R/R

+$37.5M+$36.7M± $20M exp surplusrealized −$17.6M 3.7± 2 exp WARrealized 0.3

Prior

no pedigree — league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

recent form 3.5/yr over 2.7 seasons

Talent

2.51/yr blended

Horizon

1.5 control yr × 0.98 age decline

why ▾hide ▴

Each player is valued on what he was expected to produce at the time of the trade, versus what he actually produced for his new team.

Expected WAR blends a player's pedigree (composite top-100 rank / draft slot, or a baseline) with his recent track record, projected over the years of team control acquired. The ± figure is a historically calibrated predictive standard deviation, measuring how widely comparable forecasts have missed around their expected value. Surplus values that production at the FA market price of a win (~$8M/WAR) minus salary — so cost-controlled players carry large surplus and expensive ones little, even at the same WAR. Who won is descriptive, not a skill claim: ~99% of a trade's outcome is unforeseeable at the time.