WSN⇄MIN

WSNWSN Dave Dombrowski net +$4.8M net +0.5

received +$0.0M+$0.0M ± $11M expected surplus · +$0.0M realized received 0.2 ± 1 expected · 0.0 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved WSN's 1990 odds 9% → 10% (+1 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Jim Davins

+$0.3M+$0.3M± $11M exp surplusrealized +$0.0M 0.2± 1 exp WARrealized 0.0

Unidentified minor-league throw-in — valued at the ~0.2 WAR base rate (most produce nothing)

why ▾hide ▴

MINMIN Andy MacPhail net −$4.8M net -0.5

received −$2.4M−$2.4M ± $0M expected surplus · −$4.8M realized received 0.0 ± 0 expected · -0.5 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved MIN's 1990 odds 4% → 3% (-0.4 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Jim DwyerOF·40y·L/L

−$2.1M−$2.1M± $0M exp surplusrealized −$4.8M 0.0± 0 exp WARrealized -0.5

Prior

no pedigree — league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

recent form 1.4/yr over 1.5 season

Talent

0.87/yr blended

Horizon

0.0 control yr

why ▾hide ▴

Each player is valued on what he was expected to produce at the time of the trade, versus what he actually produced for his new team.

Expected WAR blends a player's pedigree (composite top-100 rank / draft slot, or a baseline) with his recent track record, projected over the years of team control acquired. The ± figure is a historically calibrated predictive standard deviation, measuring how widely comparable forecasts have missed around their expected value. Surplus values that production at the FA market price of a win (~$8M/WAR) minus salary — so cost-controlled players carry large surplus and expensive ones little, even at the same WAR. Who won is descriptive, not a skill claim: ~99% of a trade's outcome is unforeseeable at the time.