COL⇄CLE

COLCOL Bill Schmidt net +$20.8M net +3.2

received +$7.2M+$7.2M ± $19M expected surplus · +$18.4M realized received 1.7 ± 2 expected · 2.9 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved COL's 2023 odds 0% → 0% (+0 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Nolan JonesOF·25y·L/R

+$6.9M+$6.9M± $19M exp surplusrealized +$18.4M 1.7± 2 exp WARrealized 2.9

Prior

Composite #40.5 pedigree (Baseball America #45 (2021) / MLB Pipeline #36 (2021)) — fell off 2 lists since, regressed — at the league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

recent form 0.9/yr over 0.2 season

Talent

0.31/yr blended

Horizon

5.5 control yrs

why ▾hide ▴

CLECLE Chris Antonetti net −$20.8M net -3.2

received +$1.6M+$1.6M ± $20M expected surplus · −$2.4M realized received 1.2 ± 2 expected · -0.3 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved CLE's 2023 odds 12% → 5% (-6.5 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Juan Brito2B·21y·S/R

+$1.8M+$1.8M± $20M exp surplusrealized −$2.4M 1.2± 2 exp WARrealized -0.3

Prior

no pedigree — league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

no MLB track record — leans on pedigree

Talent

0.21/yr blended

Horizon

5.5 control yrs

why ▾hide ▴

Each player is valued on what he was expected to produce at the time of the trade, versus what he actually produced for his new team.

Expected WAR blends a player's pedigree (composite top-100 rank / draft slot, or a baseline) with his recent track record, projected over the years of team control acquired. The ± figure is a historically calibrated predictive standard deviation, measuring how widely comparable forecasts have missed around their expected value. Surplus values that production at the FA market price of a win (~$8M/WAR) minus salary — so cost-controlled players carry large surplus and expensive ones little, even at the same WAR. Who won is descriptive, not a skill claim: ~99% of a trade's outcome is unforeseeable at the time.