MIA⇄ANA

MIAMIA Michael Hill net +$0.0M net +0.0

received +$0.0M+$0.0M ± $5M expected surplus · +$0.0M realized received 0.2 ± 1 expected · 0.0 realized WAR

receives — most valuable first

Jose Estrada

+$0.3M+$0.3M± $5M exp surplusrealized +$0.0M 0.2± 1 exp WARrealized 0.0

Unidentified minor-league throw-in — valued at the ~0.2 WAR base rate (most produce nothing)

why ▾hide ▴

ANAANA Billy Eppler net +$0.0M net +0.0

received −$4.0M−$4.0M ± $18M expected surplus · +$0.0M realized received 0.1 ± 2 expected · 0.0 realized WAR

receives — most valuable first

Kyle KellerP·27y·R/R

−$3.9M−$3.9M± $18M exp surplusrealized +$0.0M 0.1± 2 exp WARrealized 0.0

Prior

#536 overall draft pick — at the league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

recent form -0.6/yr over 0.3 season

Talent

0.03/yr blended

Horizon

5.5 control yrs × 0.73 age decline

why ▾hide ▴

Each player is valued on what he was expected to produce at the time of the trade, versus what he actually produced for his new team.

Expected WAR blends a player's pedigree (composite top-100 rank / draft slot, or a baseline) with his recent track record, projected over the years of team control acquired. The ± figure is a historically calibrated predictive standard deviation, measuring how widely comparable forecasts have missed around their expected value. Surplus values that production at the FA market price of a win (~$8M/WAR) minus salary — so cost-controlled players carry large surplus and expensive ones little, even at the same WAR. Who won is descriptive, not a skill claim: ~99% of a trade's outcome is unforeseeable at the time.