MIL⇄OAK

MILMIL Harry Dalton net −$3.2M net +0.4

received +$0.0M+$0.0M ± $58M expected surplus · +$1.6M realized received 2.4 ± 7 expected · 2.1 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved MIL's 1986 odds 2% → 2% (-0.8 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Charlie O'BrienC·26y·R/R

+$3.8M+$3.8M± $24M exp surplusrealized +$6.4M 2.0± 3 exp WARrealized 2.6

Prior

no pedigree — league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

recent form 2.0/yr over 0.1 season

Talent

0.37/yr blended

Horizon

5.5 control yrs × 0.98 age decline

why ▾hide ▴

Mike Fulmer

+$0.3M+$0.3M± $15M exp surplusrealized +$0.0M 0.2± 2 exp WARrealized 0.0

Unidentified minor-league throw-in — valued at the ~0.2 WAR base rate (most produce nothing)

why ▾hide ▴

Pete Kendrick

+$0.3M+$0.3M± $15M exp surplusrealized +$0.0M 0.2± 2 exp WARrealized 0.0

Unidentified minor-league throw-in — valued at the ~0.2 WAR base rate (most produce nothing)

why ▾hide ▴

Steve Kiefer3B·25y·R/R

−$4.5M−$4.5M± $48M exp surplusrealized −$4.8M 0.0± 6 exp WARrealized -0.5

Prior

no pedigree — league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

recent form -2.9/yr over 0.3 season

Talent

-0.35/yr blended

Horizon

5.5 control yrs

why ▾hide ▴

OAKOAK Sandy Alderson net +$3.2M net -0.4

received +$27.2M+$27.2M ± $22M expected surplus · +$4.8M realized received 3.7 ± 3 expected · 1.7 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved OAK's 1986 odds 6% → 9% (+2.7 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Moose HaasP·30y·R/R

+$26.9M+$26.9M± $22M exp surplusrealized +$4.8M 3.7± 3 exp WARrealized 1.7

Prior

no pedigree — league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

recent form 2.3/yr over 0.9 season

Talent

1.11/yr blended

Horizon

4.4 control yrs × 0.76 age decline

why ▾hide ▴

Each player is valued on what he was expected to produce at the time of the trade, versus what he actually produced for his new team.

Expected WAR blends a player's pedigree (composite top-100 rank / draft slot, or a baseline) with his recent track record, projected over the years of team control acquired. The ± figure is a historically calibrated predictive standard deviation, measuring how widely comparable forecasts have missed around their expected value. Surplus values that production at the FA market price of a win (~$8M/WAR) minus salary — so cost-controlled players carry large surplus and expensive ones little, even at the same WAR. Who won is descriptive, not a skill claim: ~99% of a trade's outcome is unforeseeable at the time.