CIN⇄COL

CINCIN Jim Bowden net +$1.6M net +0.4

received +$0.8M−$1.6M ± $10M expected surplus · +$1.6M realized received 0.3 ± 1 expected · 0.4 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved CIN's 2000 odds 30% → 32% (+2.1 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Brian HunterOF·29y·R/R

+$0.8M−$1.7M± $10M exp surplusrealized +$1.6M 0.3± 1 exp WARrealized 0.4

Prior

league baseline (track record outweighs draft pedigree) → 0.22/yr

Evidence

recent form 0.1/yr over 2.3 seasons

Talent

0.18/yr blended

Horizon

1.5 control yr

why ▾hide ▴

COLCOL Daniel O'Dowd net −$1.6M net -0.4

received +$2.4M+$2.4M ± $23M expected surplus · +$0.0M realized received 1.3 ± 3 expected · 0.0 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved COL's 2000 odds 11% → 10% (-0.9 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Robert AveretteC·23y·R/R

+$2.3M+$2.3M± $23M exp surplusrealized +$0.0M 1.3± 3 exp WARrealized 0.0

Prior

#638 overall draft pick — at the league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

no MLB track record — leans on pedigree

Talent

0.21/yr blended

Horizon

6.0 control yrs

why ▾hide ▴

Each player is valued on what he was expected to produce at the time of the trade, versus what he actually produced for his new team.

Expected WAR blends a player's pedigree (composite top-100 rank / draft slot, or a baseline) with his recent track record, projected over the years of team control acquired. The ± figure is a historically calibrated predictive standard deviation, measuring how widely comparable forecasts have missed around their expected value. Surplus values that production at the FA market price of a win (~$8M/WAR) minus salary — so cost-controlled players carry large surplus and expensive ones little, even at the same WAR. Who won is descriptive, not a skill claim: ~99% of a trade's outcome is unforeseeable at the time.