CHW⇄CIN

CHWCHW Ron Schueler net −$89.6M net +19.2

received +$0.8M+$0.8M ± $28M expected surplus · −$4.0M realized received 0.8 ± 4 expected · 24.5 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved CHW's 1999 odds 3% → 2% (-1.8 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Paul Konerko1B·23y·R/R

+$0.5M+$0.5M± $28M exp surplusrealized −$4.0M 0.8± 4 exp WARrealized 24.5

Prior

Composite #2.0 pedigree (Baseball America #2 (1998)) — fell off 1 list since, regressed → 0.66/yr

Evidence

recent form -1.0/yr over 0.5 season

Talent

0.16/yr blended

Horizon

5.0 control yrs

why ▾hide ▴

CINCIN Jim Bowden net +$89.6M net -19.2

received +$30.4M+$30.4M ± $40M expected surplus · +$85.6M realized received 5.7 ± 5 expected · 5.3 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved CIN's 1999 odds 48% → 67% (+18.8 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Mike CameronOF·26y·R/R

+$30.5M+$30.5M± $40M exp surplusrealized +$85.6M 5.7± 5 exp WARrealized 5.3

Prior

league baseline (track record outweighs draft pedigree) → 0.21/yr

Evidence

recent form 2.4/yr over 1.5 season

Talent

1.43/yr blended

Horizon

4.0 control yrs

why ▾hide ▴

Each player is valued on what he was expected to produce at the time of the trade, versus what he actually produced for his new team.

Expected WAR blends a player's pedigree (composite top-100 rank / draft slot, or a baseline) with his recent track record, projected over the years of team control acquired. The ± figure is a historically calibrated predictive standard deviation, measuring how widely comparable forecasts have missed around their expected value. Surplus values that production at the FA market price of a win (~$8M/WAR) minus salary — so cost-controlled players carry large surplus and expensive ones little, even at the same WAR. Who won is descriptive, not a skill claim: ~99% of a trade's outcome is unforeseeable at the time.