SDP⇄BOS

SDPSDP Joe McIlvaine net +$0.8M net +1.9

received +$20.8M+$20.8M ± $48M expected surplus · −$1.6M realized received 3.9 ± 6 expected · 1.8 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved SDP's 1993 odds 0% → 0% (+0.1 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Phil PlantierOF·24y·L/R

+$20.6M+$20.6M± $48M exp surplusrealized −$1.6M 3.9± 6 exp WARrealized 1.8

Prior

league baseline (track record outweighs draft pedigree) → 0.21/yr

Evidence

recent form 1.5/yr over 1.0 season

Talent

0.78/yr blended

Horizon

5.0 control yrs

why ▾hide ▴

BOSBOS Lou Gorman net −$0.8M net -1.9

received +$9.6M+$9.6M ± $28M expected surplus · −$2.4M realized received 2.6 ± 4 expected · -0.1 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved BOS's 1993 odds 35% → 26% (-9.6 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

José MeléndezP·27y·R/R

+$9.8M+$9.8M± $28M exp surplusrealized −$2.4M 2.6± 4 exp WARrealized -0.1

Prior

no pedigree — league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

recent form 1.0/yr over 1.7 season

Talent

0.66/yr blended

Horizon

4.0 control yrs

why ▾hide ▴

Each player is valued on what he was expected to produce at the time of the trade, versus what he actually produced for his new team.

Expected WAR blends a player's pedigree (composite top-100 rank / draft slot, or a baseline) with his recent track record, projected over the years of team control acquired. The ± figure is a historically calibrated predictive standard deviation, measuring how widely comparable forecasts have missed around their expected value. Surplus values that production at the FA market price of a win (~$8M/WAR) minus salary — so cost-controlled players carry large surplus and expensive ones little, even at the same WAR. Who won is descriptive, not a skill claim: ~99% of a trade's outcome is unforeseeable at the time.