TEX⇄TOR

TEXTEX Douglas Melvin net +$12.0M net +2.9

received +$2.4M+$2.4M ± $18M expected surplus · +$12.8M realized received 0.9 ± 2 expected · 3.5 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved TEX's 1998 odds 69% → 72% (+3.5 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Tim CrabtreeP·28y·R/R

+$2.6M+$2.6M± $18M exp surplusrealized +$12.8M 0.9± 2 exp WARrealized 3.5

Prior

league baseline (track record outweighs draft pedigree) → 0.21/yr

Evidence

recent form 0.3/yr over 2.1 seasons

Talent

0.29/yr blended

Horizon

3.0 control yrs

why ▾hide ▴

TORTOR Gord Ash net −$12.0M net -2.9

received +$3.2M+$3.2M ± $22M expected surplus · +$0.8M realized received 1.7 ± 3 expected · 0.6 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved TOR's 1998 odds 49% → 45% (-4.1 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Kevin BrownC·25y·R/R

+$3.3M+$3.3M± $22M exp surplusrealized +$0.8M 1.7± 3 exp WARrealized 0.6

Prior

#56 overall draft pick — at the league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

recent form 3.9/yr over 0.0 season

Talent

0.34/yr blended

Horizon

5.0 control yrs

why ▾hide ▴

Each player is valued on what he was expected to produce at the time of the trade, versus what he actually produced for his new team.

Expected WAR blends a player's pedigree (composite top-100 rank / draft slot, or a baseline) with his recent track record, projected over the years of team control acquired. The ± figure is a historically calibrated predictive standard deviation, measuring how widely comparable forecasts have missed around their expected value. Surplus values that production at the FA market price of a win (~$8M/WAR) minus salary — so cost-controlled players carry large surplus and expensive ones little, even at the same WAR. Who won is descriptive, not a skill claim: ~99% of a trade's outcome is unforeseeable at the time.