TOR⇄MIA

TORTOR Gord Ash net +$1.6M net +0.7

received +$0.0M+$0.0M ± $10M expected surplus · +$0.0M realized received 0.2 ± 1 expected · 0.0 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved TOR's 1995 odds 1% → 1% (+0 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Ernie Delgado

+$0.3M+$0.3M± $10M exp surplusrealized +$0.0M 0.2± 1 exp WARrealized 0.0

Unidentified minor-league throw-in — valued at the ~0.2 WAR base rate (most produce nothing)

why ▾hide ▴

MIAMIA Dave Dombrowski net −$1.6M net -0.7

received +$0.0M+$0.0M ± $35M expected surplus · −$1.6M realized received 0.8 ± 4 expected · -0.7 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved MIA's 1995 odds 13% → 12% (-0.5 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Aaron SmallP·23y·R/R

−$0.3M−$0.3M± $35M exp surplusrealized −$1.6M 0.8± 4 exp WARrealized -0.7

Prior

#573 overall draft pick — at the league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

recent form -2.2/yr over 0.0 season

Talent

0.14/yr blended

Horizon

5.5 control yrs

why ▾hide ▴

Each player is valued on what he was expected to produce at the time of the trade, versus what he actually produced for his new team.

Expected WAR blends a player's pedigree (composite top-100 rank / draft slot, or a baseline) with his recent track record, projected over the years of team control acquired. The ± figure is a historically calibrated predictive standard deviation, measuring how widely comparable forecasts have missed around their expected value. Surplus values that production at the FA market price of a win (~$8M/WAR) minus salary — so cost-controlled players carry large surplus and expensive ones little, even at the same WAR. Who won is descriptive, not a skill claim: ~99% of a trade's outcome is unforeseeable at the time.