CHW⇄DET

CHWCHW Larry Himes net +$29.6M net +4.6

received +$5.6M+$5.6M ± $20M expected surplus · +$19.2M realized received 1.6 ± 2 expected · 3.2 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved CHW's 1989 odds 0% → 1% (+0.2 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Eric KingP·25y·R/R

+$5.6M+$5.6M± $20M exp surplusrealized +$19.2M 1.6± 2 exp WARrealized 3.2

Prior

no pedigree — league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

recent form 0.8/yr over 1.8 season

Talent

0.55/yr blended

Horizon

3.0 control yrs

why ▾hide ▴

DETDET Bill Lajoie net −$29.6M net -4.6

received +$0.8M+$0.8M ± $28M expected surplus · −$10.4M realized received 0.8 ± 4 expected · -1.4 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved DET's 1989 odds 0% → 0% (-0.1 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Ken WilliamsOF·25y·R/R

+$1.2M+$1.2M± $28M exp surplusrealized −$10.4M 0.8± 4 exp WARrealized -1.4

Prior

no pedigree — league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

recent form 0.2/yr over 1.0 season

Talent

0.19/yr blended

Horizon

4.0 control yrs

why ▾hide ▴

Each player is valued on what he was expected to produce at the time of the trade, versus what he actually produced for his new team.

Expected WAR blends a player's pedigree (composite top-100 rank / draft slot, or a baseline) with his recent track record, projected over the years of team control acquired. The ± figure is a historically calibrated predictive standard deviation, measuring how widely comparable forecasts have missed around their expected value. Surplus values that production at the FA market price of a win (~$8M/WAR) minus salary — so cost-controlled players carry large surplus and expensive ones little, even at the same WAR. Who won is descriptive, not a skill claim: ~99% of a trade's outcome is unforeseeable at the time.