ARI⇄NYM

ARIARI Joe Garagiola net +$0.0M net +0.1

received +$10.4M+$10.4M ± $12M expected surplus · +$0.0M realized received 2.1 ± 2 expected · 0.1 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved ARI's 2002 odds 84% → 84% (+0.2 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Mark LittleOF·29y·R/R

+$10.2M+$10.2M± $12M exp surplusrealized +$0.0M 2.1± 2 exp WARrealized 0.1

Prior

#225 overall draft pick — at the league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

recent form 1.8/yr over 0.4 season

Talent

0.57/yr blended

Horizon

5.0 control yrs × 0.74 age decline

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NYMNYM Steve Phillips net +$0.0M net -0.1

received +$0.0M+$0.0M ± $6M expected surplus · +$0.0M realized received 0.2 ± 1 expected · 0.0 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved NYM's 2002 odds 8% → 7% (-0.1 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

P.J. Bevis

+$0.3M+$0.3M± $6M exp surplusrealized +$0.0M 0.2± 1 exp WARrealized 0.0

Unidentified minor-league throw-in — valued at the ~0.2 WAR base rate (most produce nothing)

why ▾hide ▴

Each player is valued on what he was expected to produce at the time of the trade, versus what he actually produced for his new team.

Expected WAR blends a player's pedigree (composite top-100 rank / draft slot, or a baseline) with his recent track record, projected over the years of team control acquired. The ± figure is a historically calibrated predictive standard deviation, measuring how widely comparable forecasts have missed around their expected value. Surplus values that production at the FA market price of a win (~$8M/WAR) minus salary — so cost-controlled players carry large surplus and expensive ones little, even at the same WAR. Who won is descriptive, not a skill claim: ~99% of a trade's outcome is unforeseeable at the time.